r/investingMar 19, 10:16 PM
I’ve been looking at this for over a year now, and now that I’ve got that year behind me, I can stop guessing and look at what actually happened. This is not financial advice. It started as speculation based on real numbers, and now there are real outcomes.
What I’ve really been focused on is something simple. Capital allocation across different asset classes, and how those choices actually play out over time.
So I focused on a $513 million investment made by a 10 billion dollar company over the past year and compared it to other investment possibilities they could have made. (Edited paragraph)
Bitcoin was one path. At the time, about $513 million bought 4,710 Bitcoin, roughly $108,900 per coin. Today, with Bitcoin around $70,000, that position is worth about $330 million. That’s about a $183 million loss.
Before going further, I looked at something basic. If that same $513 million had gone into gold, it would be worth about $719 million today. If it had gone into silver, it would be worth about $1.1 billion. So even basic metals outperformed Bitcoin. That already happened.
Then I took it a step further and looked at a couple of equities tied to different sectors, just to see how far the spread could go.
If that same $513 million had been used to buy IBRX at about $2.46, that position would be worth about $1.77 billion today. If it had been used to buy HYMC at about $2.98, that position would be worth about $5.42 billion today.
So instead of $513 million turning into $330 million, it could have turned into anywhere from about $719 million to over $5 billion depending on allocation.
And this is after a pullback across the board. Metals pulled back. Stocks pulled back. Everything cooled off. These are not peak numbers, these are current conditions.
Now yes, you can call that hindsight. That’s fair. But the point isn’t to go backward. The point is the setup still exists, just in a different form.
So now I flipped it and looked forward.
Take that same $513 million today and project it out 12 to 18 months using reasonable expectations that are already out there.
Bitcoin at $70,000 going to around $120,000 turns into about $879 million.
IBRX at $8.50 going to around $21.50 turns into about $1.3 billion.
HYMC at $31.50 going to about $60, which it has already touched before and is tied to metals strength, turns into about $977 million.
So across the board, you’re looking at $513 million turning into anywhere from under $900 million to over $1.3 billion depending on the asset.
That’s the difference between assets that move and assets that really move.
For context, the original Bitcoin allocation in this example came from a retail game company. That’s what made me start looking into this in the first place, not to pump it, but to understand the decision and compare it to other possibilities.
What I took away from that is simple.
Capital allocation matters more than anything. Not just picking something, but picking where the money actually has the best chance to grow.
So I started applying this myself, spreading across different categories instead of staying in one lane. Retail, digital assets, metals, biotech. Different drivers, different outcomes.
It worked for me, up about 60 to 70 perc